The use of GLP-1 medications among individuals without diabetes is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study released in the Annals of Internal Medicine. Researchers have raised alarms about the potential for shortages of these treatments due to rising demand.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduce appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, these medications gained further attention when the FDA greenlit Wegovy for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in scaling up production to meet the surging demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and others examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors from 2011 to 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, noted that this shift indicates healthcare providers are recognizing the potential of these drugs in obesity treatment. However, the study also highlights concerns regarding the availability of these medications for diabetic patients.
The research utilized data from the health software company TriNetX, which may not fully reflect national trends.
Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their weight loss benefits, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight. The skyrocketing sales of these medications have catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, although some patients are struggling to fill their prescriptions due to high demand. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., which accounts for about 9% of the population, by 2035.