A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and decrease appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented on the findings: “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which marks a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring access for diabetes patients.”
The study leveraged data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be nationally representative.
Recently, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales figures have significantly boosted the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, transforming them into the highest-valued pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the high demand has also led to difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase the production of these medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also estimate that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., approximately 9% of the population, will be using these drugs by 2035.