A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for people with diabetes are declining. The study highlights concerns over potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, the FDA extended approval in 2021 for the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss. Since then, companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to meet the increasing demand for this class of medications, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this shift suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the potential of these medications for obesity treatment. However, this raises concerns about the availability of these drugs for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not be fully representative on a national scale. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to be among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the intense demand has resulted in challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, accounting for approximately 9% of the population.