A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of people without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are on the decline. Researchers caution that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are designed to mimic a hormone that helps manage blood sugar levels and curb appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss through Wegovy.
The growing demand for GLP-1 drugs has intensified competition between manufacturers Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, both of which are struggling to keep up with production to meet rising consumer needs.
The study analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers from 2011 to 2023. It found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% during that period, while the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend signifies a shift in how healthcare providers recognize the benefits of GLP-1 medications for obesity treatment. However, it raises concerns about medication availability for diabetes patients who still require these treatments.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not be fully representative of national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose as much as 26% of their body weight. This boom has significantly increased the market valuations of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them leading pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, the heightened demand has complicated some patients’ ability to obtain their prescriptions. To address this, both companies have invested billions in enhancing their production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected 31.5 million people in the U.S. utilizing GLP-1 drugs by 2035, which represents about 9% of the population.