A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a concerning trend regarding GLP-1 drugs, with an increasing number of prescriptions being issued to individuals without diabetes while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises potential concerns about future shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and assists in reducing appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA authorized Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, specifically for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently grappling with the challenge of meeting the soaring demand for GLP-1 medications— a category that includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates an increased recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for treating obesity. However, it also highlights concerns regarding medication shortages and the imperative to ensure ongoing access for patients with diabetes.
While the study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative on a national scale, GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand is causing difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to boost their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, using these medications by 2035.