The proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Researchers are cautioning that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these treatments. GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. In 2021, the FDA authorized the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight management.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy growing demand.
A team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s appointment from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated a decline in the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from almost 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Simultaneously, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that an increasing number of healthcare providers recognize the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, reflecting a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study. “However, this trend raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring ongoing access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population.
GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity in recent years due to their appetite-suppressing effects, resulting in users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, but the high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions in increasing their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expectation that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.