A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while the number of prescriptions for those with diabetes is decreasing. Researchers warn this shift raises concerns about possible shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss, expanding its use beyond diabetes management.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly now face challenges in producing sufficient quantities of these GLP-1 drugs—such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to satisfy the growing demand.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25% during the same period.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The research utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the national population accurately.
In recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the increasing demand has made it difficult for some patients to have their prescriptions filled. Both companies have invested significantly to boost production of these medications.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—expected to adopt these drugs by 2035.