A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA granted approval for Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment aimed at weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic to meet the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records for 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes grew from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented on the findings, stating that more healthcare providers are recognizing the medications’ benefits for treating obesity, signifying a significant shift in public health. However, he also expressed concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the need to maintain access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, the high demand has made it challenging for certain patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, which represents about 9% of the population.