A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study caution that this trend may lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. In 2021, the FDA also sanctioned Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight management.
Since then, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping up with the growing demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight-loss effects, enabling users to shed up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the high demand has resulted in difficulties for patients attempting to fill prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily in increasing their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—using these medications by 2035.