A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021 has led to an increased demand for these drugs. Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently struggling to meet this demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare facilities between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while those without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, one of the study’s co-authors, expressed that this data highlights a significant public health shift as healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for treating obesity. However, she warned about the implications for diabetes patients who still need access to these treatments.
The research utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, although it may not reflect the entire national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to aid users in losing up to 26% of their body weight, thanks to their appetite-suppressing effects. This surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk into positions as some of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, although high demand has created challenges for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have been investing significantly to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley predicts that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. will adopt these medications by 2035, representing around 9% of the population.