A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates an increasing number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. The authors express concern that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone responsible for regulating blood sugar levels and reducing appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA expanded their use by approving the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss purposes.
Currently, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in keeping up with the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. Their findings reveal that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
“This data indicates that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a substantial public health change,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure diabetes patients maintain access to these drugs.”
The research utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not be entirely representative of the national landscape.
GLP-1 medications have gained popularity in recent years for their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users able to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The significant increase in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the top of the pharmaceutical industry. However, the surge in demand has also complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies are investing billions into increasing their production of these drugs.
According to analysts at Morgan Stanley, the global market for GLP-1 medications is projected to reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—by 2035.