A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. This shift has raised alarms regarding the potential for shortages of these crucial treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were initially intended for type 2 diabetes management. However, their use surged after the Food and Drug Administration approved Wegovy for weight loss in 2021. Consequently, pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in keeping up with the soaring demand for various GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They noted a significant drop in the percentage of new GLP-1 patients with type 2 diabetes, from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Meanwhile, the percentage of new GLP-1 users who do not have diabetes climbed from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized that while healthcare providers are beginning to recognize the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, it is essential to address the need for continued access for diabetes patients.
The surge in popularity of GLP-1 drugs can largely be attributed to their effectiveness in promoting substantial weight loss—up to 26% of body weight. As a result, the remarkable sales growth has propelled both Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, making them among the most valuable companies globally. However, this high demand has led to difficulties in fulfilling prescriptions for some patients. In response, both companies have made significant investments to boost their production capabilities.
Market analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications will reach approximately $105 billion by 2030, with an expected increase in adoption to about 31.5 million users in the U.S., equating to roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.
This trend underscores a growing recognition of the importance of obesity management in public health, while also highlighting a critical need to ensure equitable access to necessary treatments for all patients. The potential for GLP-1 drugs to address both diabetes and obesity could herald a new era in healthcare, fostering improved health outcomes for millions.