The proportion of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while the number of new prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The authors of the study express concern that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the Food and Drug Administration expanded the approval of these medications in 2021 when it authorized Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are now facing challenges in keeping up with the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Concurrently, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about medication shortages and underscores the need to ensure diabetic patients still have access to these treatments.”
The analysis utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not provide a fully representative national sample.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects and have been shown to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have vaulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the top ranks of pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has made it increasingly difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase the production of these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also predict that the adoption of these medications may rise to approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., accounting for about 9% of the population, by 2035.