A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescribing of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study highlights that this shift could potentially lead to shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to imitate a hormone that controls blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded approval in 2021 to include the use of Wegovy for weight loss.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the leading manufacturers of GLP-1 drugs such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are now facing challenges in meeting the growing demand for these medications.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, examined medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo commented that this trend reflects a significant public health shift, as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, this raises concern about ensuring that diabetes patients still have access to these necessary treatments.
The research employed data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, though the sample may not represent national demographics.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide, even as high demand has resulted in challenges for patients securing their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested heavily to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, equating to about 9% of the population.