A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend where individuals without diabetes are increasingly being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while the number of new prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining. This shift raises alarms about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and controls appetite. Initially approved for managing type 2 diabetes, the FDA later authorized the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing production challenges in meeting soaring demands for GLP-1 drugs such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor from 2011 to 2023. Their findings showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests an increasing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, representing a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the need to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study’s data comes from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has led Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in prescription fulfillment challenges for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions to enhance production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with adoption expected to rise to about 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., or 9% of the population, by 2035.