A new study published on Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications among individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for diabetic patients decline. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were initially designed for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the Food and Drug Administration approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Both major manufacturers, Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Simultaneously, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX but may not be fully representative of the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing properties, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has also created challenges for patients needing to fill prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest heavily in increasing production capabilities.
According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the global market for these drugs is projected to reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimate that by 2035, about 31.5 million people in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—will be adopting these medications.