A study released on Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, initially approved for type 2 diabetes, function by mimicking a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and curb appetite. The FDA also granted approval in 2021 for the GLP-1 drug Wegovy to be used for weight loss.
As demand skyrockets, pharmaceutical giants Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the increased production needs of GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers affiliated with Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. Their analysis revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to just over 70% by 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, emphasized, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift.” However, she also expressed concern regarding potential medication shortages, stressing the need to ensure that patients with diabetes can still access these treatments.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies, but the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity for these medications.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.