A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the number of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite. Initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval in 2021 for the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy to be used for weight loss.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two major manufacturers of GLP-1 drugs, are struggling to keep up with intensified demand for these medications, which include popular options such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings showed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to more than 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25% during that same period.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this data reflects a growing recognition among healthcare providers of the benefits of these medications in treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health. However, this comes with the caution that it may lead to further medication shortages, raising concerns about access for patients with diabetes.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their weight loss benefits, with some users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, this surge in demand has made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, expected to adopt these medications by 2035.