The proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining, according to a recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The study authors express concern that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these treatments. GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite. Initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment, the FDA expanded approval in 2021 for Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, whereas the number of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data indicates that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, representing a significant shift in public health,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients continue to access these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the national landscape accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and the ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has also made it challenging for some patients to fill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to enhance production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also anticipate that adoption rates in the U.S. could rise to about 31.5 million people, roughly 9% of the population, by 2035.