A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine has revealed that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study indicates potential concerns regarding future shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to replicate a hormone responsible for regulating blood sugar levels and curbing appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval of the GLP-1 medication Wegovy for weight loss purposes in 2021.
Since that time, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in manufacturing enough GLP-1 drugs—including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings revealed a decline in the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes, dropping from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes grew from 10% to 25% during the same period.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, remarked, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which marks a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The research utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. As a result, the soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry. However, the heightened demand has made it difficult for some patients to fill their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the market for these drugs will reach $105 billion globally by 2030, forecasting that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these medications by 2035.