A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable trend: the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concerns about potential shortages of these treatments as a result.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for managing type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the leading manufacturers of GLP-1 medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are struggling to meet the rising demand for these products.
The study, conducted by Cedars-Sinai Medical Center researchers and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. Findings revealed that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, noted that this trend indicates more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she also emphasized the concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the necessity for diabetes patients to retain access to these drugs.
The research utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, contributing to weight loss of up to 26% for users. This surge in sales has led to Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk becoming two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but it has also made it challenging for some patients to fulfill their prescriptions. Both companies are investing heavily to increase their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030 and estimate that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., approximately 9% of the population, will adopt these medications by 2035.