A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the percentage of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline. Researchers raised concerns over a potential shortage of these treatments due to this trend.
GLP-1 drugs mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite. Originally approved for type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the use of GLP-1 medications, including Wegovy, for weight loss in 2021. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to meet the growing demand for the GLP-1 medication class, which includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the percentage of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, commented on the findings, stating, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The researchers utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, leading to weight loss of up to 26% for users.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, high demand has resulted in challenges for some patients in filling their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an anticipated adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million users in the U.S. by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.