A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers are expressing concerns about potential treatment shortages due to this shift.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone responsible for regulating blood sugar and appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 drug, for weight loss, further expanding its use.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the growing demand.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center among other institutions, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. The findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes fell from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the percentage of users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, which poses a significant public health challenge. However, it raises alarms about ensuring ongoing access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent national trends. In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with evidence that they can help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surging sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. Nevertheless, the high demand has hindered some patients from obtaining their prescriptions, leading both companies to invest billions in boosting production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global GLP-1 drug market could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.