A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. Researchers express concern that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. In 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep pace with the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who made at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. The findings revealed that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Meanwhile, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated that this trend suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the effectiveness of these medications in treating obesity, signifying a notable shift in public health. However, it also highlights the pressing issue of ensuring availability for diabetes patients who need these treatments.
The study leveraged data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not be fully representative of the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring demand for these medications has significantly boosted the market value of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the rising demand has led to difficulties for some patients in getting their prescriptions filled, prompting both companies to invest billions into increasing production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will be using these drugs.