A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend where more individuals without diabetes are being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study highlights concerns about potential shortages of these drugs due to the increasing demand.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and diminish appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss treatments, specifically approving Wegovy for that purpose.
Since this expansion, manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 drugs, which include popular medications such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes plummeted from nearly 90% in 2019 to just over 70% by 2023. Conversely, the percentage of first-time GLP-1 users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo remarked that this trend indicates a significant shift in how healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment. However, she also expressed concerns about ensuring continued access to these drugs for diabetes patients.
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though the data may not fully represent national trends.
Over recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their effectiveness in suppressing appetite and facilitating significant weight loss—up to 26% of body weight. This surge in interest has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the status of two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions, prompting both companies to invest billions in production increases.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.