The percentage of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is on the rise, while the number of new prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining, according to a new study released on Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
The authors of the study highlight concerns regarding potential shortages of these treatments, as this trend emerges.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to imitate a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and lower appetite. They were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Since that time, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient supplies of GLP-1 medications— including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic—to meet increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations conducted an analysis of the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Concurrently, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, indicating a major shift in public health,” said Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about possible medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
Recently, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users losing up to 26% of their body weight.
Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk have witnessed soaring sales, positioning them as the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, increased demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. To address these challenges, both companies have invested billions to boost their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also anticipate that by 2035, the adoption of these treatments will encompass approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., which would represent around 9% of the population.