A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a significant increase in the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for people with diabetes have declined. Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the proportion of new GLP-1 users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
GLP-1 drugs, originally approved for type 2 diabetes management, mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite. Following the FDA’s approval of Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, the demand for these drugs surged. However, manufacturers like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep pace with this demand, raising concerns about potential shortages.
Co-author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, highlighted the public health implications of this trend, stating, “More healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity. However, there are worries about medication shortages and the need to ensure continuous access for diabetes patients.”
In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have led to their increased popularity, with some users losing up to 26% of their body weight. The skyrocketing sales have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally, though high demand has created challenges in fulfilling prescriptions. Both companies are heavily investing to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley estimates that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with projections suggesting that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. could be using these drugs by 2035, representing about 9% of the population.