A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers caution that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels while also curbing appetite. They were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes, but in 2021, the FDA granted approval for the GLP-1 drug Wegovy as a weight-loss treatment.
Since that time, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in keeping up with the soaring demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They found that the share of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers recognize the advantages of these medications for managing obesity, marking a significant public health transformation,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also highlights concerns regarding possible medication shortages and the necessity of ensuring patients with diabetes retain access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies in the world, though the high demand has complicated access for some patients. To address this issue, both companies have invested billions to increase their production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that around 31.5 million people, or about 9% of the U.S. population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.