A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift has raised alarms about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and diminishes appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment for weight loss. Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show that the percentage of new GLP-1 users diagnosed with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author of the study, Yee Hui Yeo, emphasized the implications of this data, indicating a significant public health shift as more healthcare providers recognize the benefits of these drugs for obesity treatment. However, this trend also raises concerns about ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national landscape. The popularity of GLP-1 drugs has surged in recent years due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nonetheless, high demand has complicated access for some patients needing prescriptions. Both companies have committed billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. — approximately 9% of the population — expected to adopt these treatments by 2035.