A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications among individuals without diabetes, while the number of prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining. The study highlights concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which help regulate blood sugar and reduce appetite, were initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA’s 2021 approval of Wegovy for weight loss has led to increased interest in these drugs. As a result, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the rising demand for GLP-1 drugs such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are seeing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which is a significant public health shift.” However, the increase in prescriptions for non-diabetic patients raises alarms about medication shortages and the accessibility of these treatments for diabetic patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not fully represent the national population. Recent years have seen GLP-1 drugs gain popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales of these medications has significantly boosted the market positions of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies are investing billions to increase production capacity.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an expected adoption rate of approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S. by 2035, encompassing about 9% of the population.