A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend of GLP-1 drug prescriptions among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. Researchers express concern that this shift could potentially lead to shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 medications are designed to imitate a hormone that aids in regulating blood sugar levels and curbing appetite. Initially approved solely for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight management.
Following this approval, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to keep pace with the increased demand for GLP-1 medications, which include products like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, assessed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider from 2011 to 2023. The findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes surged from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, the study’s co-first author, noted that this data reflects a significant shift in public health priorities, with more healthcare providers recognizing the efficacy of these medications for obesity treatment. However, Yeo also highlighted the potential risks of medication shortages and the importance of ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
Utilizing data from healthcare software company TriNetX, the study’s findings may not represent national trends. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and potential to help patients lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nonetheless, the high demand has hindered some patients’ ability to fill their prescriptions. In response, both companies have committed billions of dollars to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. adopting these medications—about 9% of the population—by 2035.