A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns regarding potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which were originally approved for type 2 diabetes management, work by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and suppresses appetite. In 2021, the FDA expanded their use to include weight loss medications, notably Wegovy.
As a result, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in producing adequate supplies of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, analyzed medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, highlighted that this data suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant public health shift. However, Yeo also cautioned about the implications for diabetes patients regarding access to these treatments.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect national trends.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing properties, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. This surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, the heightened demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have committed substantial investments to enhance production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with the adoption rate expected to rise to approximately 31.5 million individuals in the United States by 2035, equating to about 9% of the population.