A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and suppress appetite, were originally approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021, prompting a surge in demand for these medications.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, leading producers of GLP-1 drugs including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are facing challenges in meeting this rising demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. In contrast, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring that patients with diabetes still have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, though the sample may not be nationally representative.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nonetheless, the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions in increasing production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, anticipating that around 31.5 million individuals in the U.S. will adopt these treatments by 2035, which would represent about 9% of the population.