A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are on the decline. The authors of the study caution that this trend could lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to imitate a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, originally receiving approval for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the Food and Drug Administration endorsed Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication, specifically for weight loss purposes.
Following this approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in keeping up with the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records of approximately 45 million Americans who consulted a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023, while the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that a growing number of healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for obesity management, marking a significant public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this trend also raises concerns about possible medication shortages and the importance of ensuring that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.”
Although the study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, it may not fully represent national trends. Over the last few years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity and users have reported losing as much as 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these medications have positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the heightened demand has complicated the process for some patients to fill their prescriptions. To address this, both companies have invested billions in increasing their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—roughly 9% of the population—adopting these drugs by 2035.