A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are on the decline. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs are designed to mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and decrease appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, received FDA approval for weight loss in 2021. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to meet surging demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. They found that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, which indicates a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetic patients maintain access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, though it may not reflect a nationally representative sample. Over recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, contributing to weight loss of up to 26% for users.
The soaring sales of these medications have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for some patients to get their prescriptions filled, prompting substantial investments from both companies to increase their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that approximately 31.5 million people—around 9% of the U.S. population—will adopt these medications by 2035.