A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of people without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. This trend raises concerns about possible shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which function by imitating a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite, were initially authorized for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA granted approval for Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment specifically for weight loss.
Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the growing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to more than 70% from 2019 to 2023. Simultaneously, the share of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Co-first author Yee Hui Yeo emphasized that this data reflects a significant shift in public health perspectives regarding obesity treatment, but it also raises important questions about ensuring continued access to these medications for diabetes patients.
The study employed data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not be representative of the entire country.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained traction due to their appetite-suppressing effects, contributing to weight loss of up to 26%. The soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies worldwide. However, the increased demand has made it difficult for some patients to fulfill their prescriptions. In response, both companies have invested billions to expand their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 medications will reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—will adopt these drugs by 2035.