A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend among individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients have decreased. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these drugs.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, were originally approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss.
Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing sufficient quantities of GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that this trend suggests healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity management, marking a substantial public health shift. However, the concern remains regarding ensuring continued access to these treatments for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing properties, enabling users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales for these drugs has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, making them among the most valuable companies globally. However, the high demand has resulted in difficulties for some patients in filling their prescriptions. Both companies are investing billions to increase production capabilities for these medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030. They also anticipate that around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will adopt these treatments by 2035.