A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates that the number of individuals without diabetes receiving prescriptions for GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetics are declining. The authors of the study express concern over potential shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by mimicking a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and reduces appetite, originally being approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, the FDA expanded approval in 2021 for the use of Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have been facing challenges in keeping up with the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, reviewed medical records of 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes has decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. In contrast, the number of new GLP-1 users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, who co-authored the study, stated, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients continue to have access to these treatments.”
While the research relied on data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not represent the entire population, it reflects a growing trend. In recent years, the appetite-suppressing effects of GLP-1 medications have garnered popularity, with users able to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The surge in sales has positioned Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk as two of the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical firms. Nonetheless, the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production of these crucial medications.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million users in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—by 2035.