A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine indicates a rising trend in the prescription of GLP-1 medications among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The authors of the study caution that this shift could lead to potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone responsible for regulating blood sugar and curbing appetite, were initially released for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss purposes.
Since that approval, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in producing enough GLP-1 drugs, a class that includes Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the increasing demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other organizations examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor visit between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health focus,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this raises concerns about potential medication shortages and highlights the need to ensure continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not fully represent the national landscape.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects and their ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring sales of these drugs have made Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk among the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, the overwhelming demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. In response, both companies are investing billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 medications could reach $105 billion by 2030. They also estimate that the adoption of these drugs in the U.S. may extend to roughly 31.5 million people, around 9% of the population, by 2035.