A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an increasing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs among individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. This shift raises concerns about potential shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that regulates blood sugar and suppresses appetite, were initially approved for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA expanded their use to include weight loss treatments, with Wegovy as a notable example.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, two leading manufacturers of GLP-1 drugs such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, are struggling to meet the soaring demand for these products.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit from 2011 to 2023. Their findings indicated that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, commented, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns regarding potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software firm TriNetX, which may not fully represent national trends.
GLP-1 medications have gained popularity in recent years for their appetite-suppressing effects, with users shown to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The skyrocketing sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the high demand has made it challenging for certain patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 and estimate that approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, will adopt these treatments by 2035.