A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining. The authors of the study express concerns regarding the possibility of shortages for these medications.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and reduce appetite. Initially approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded the approval for the GLP-1 treatment Wegovy for weight management in 2021.
As a result, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are struggling to keep up with the rising demand for GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Concurrently, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, indicating a major shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, this trend also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity to ensure that diabetes patients maintain access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, allowing users to lose up to 26% of their body weight.
The soaring demand for these drugs has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the heightened demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with the expected adoption rate rising to approximately 31.5 million individuals in the U.S., or about 9% of the population, by 2035.