A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a rising trend of GLP-1 medications being prescribed to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for those with type 2 diabetes have declined. This shift raises concerns over the potential for supply shortages of these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, initially approved for type 2 diabetes management, function by mimicking a hormone that regulates blood sugar and curbs appetite. The FDA expanded their use in 2021, approving Wegovy for weight loss, which has contributed to a surge in demand.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without the condition increased from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, a co-author of the study, noted this trend signifies a growing recognition of these drugs’ benefits for obesity treatment but expresses concerns over maintaining access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from TriNetX, although it may not represent national trends. In recent years, the popularity of GLP-1 drugs, known for their weight-loss effects, has surged, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The escalating sales of these medications have significantly boosted the valuations of Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk, making them among the most valuable pharmaceutical firms worldwide. However, the high demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. Both companies are investing heavily to increase production capacity.
Morgan Stanley forecasts that the global market for GLP-1 drugs may reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that about 31.5 million people in the U.S. could adopt these medications by 2035, constituting approximately 9% of the population.