A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals an alarming trend: the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 drugs is increasing while the number of new prescriptions for those with diabetes is declining. Researchers are expressing concerns about possible shortages of these medications.
GLP-1 drugs mimic a hormone that manages blood sugar levels and curbs appetite, primarily designed for type 2 diabetes treatment. However, in 2021, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 medication, for weight loss. Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the soaring demand for these drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions reviewed the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. Their findings show that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, highlighting a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.”
The study relied on data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the national demographic accurately. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The surging demand has elevated Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become leading pharmaceutical companies globally, but this demand has complicated the prescription fulfillment process for some patients. To address the increased need, both companies have invested heavily in boosting production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, estimating that by 2035, around 31.5 million people in the U.S. will use these medications, which represents approximately 9% of the population.