A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable increase in the number of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while prescriptions for those with diabetes are on the decline.
Researchers express concern that this shift could lead to shortages of these important treatments. GLP-1 drugs, originally designed to manage type 2 diabetes, mimic a hormone that aids in blood sugar regulation and appetite control. The FDA approved the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss in 2021, further expanding its use.
Since then, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the growing demand for GLP-1 medications, which include popular brands such as Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Analyzing medical records of 45 million Americans from 2011 to 2023, researchers found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped significantly, from nearly 90% to over 70%. Concurrently, the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%. Yee Hui Yeo, the study’s co-first author, highlighted the implications of this trend, indicating that healthcare providers may be recognizing the efficacy of these medications for obesity, which presents a considerable public health change. However, this also emphasizes the necessity of maintaining access for diabetes patients.
The study’s data, derived from the healthcare software company TriNetX, may not fully represent the national landscape. In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with users reporting weight loss of up to 26%.
The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become two of the most valuable pharmaceutical firms globally. However, this high demand has led to difficulties for some patients in accessing their prescribed medications. In response, both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that approximately 31.5 million Americans, or about 9% of the population, will utilize these medications by 2035.