A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, even as new prescriptions for those diagnosed with diabetes are declining. Researchers have expressed concerns about the potential shortage of these treatments as a result.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were initially approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, their approval for weight loss use in 2021, particularly with the drug Wegovy, has led to increased demand.
Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, the two main producers of GLP-1 medications, have faced challenges in keeping pace with this rising demand for their products, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
The study, conducted by researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions, analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited doctors between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, remarked, “This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant public health shift. However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and ensuring that patients with diabetes continue to have access to these treatments.”
The findings are based on data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although this dataset may not be representative on a national scale.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with users reportedly losing as much as 26% of their body weight. The surging sales of these medications have catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the world’s most valuable pharmaceutical companies. However, this soaring demand has led to difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Analysts at Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, with expectations that about 31.5 million people in the U.S., roughly 9% of the population, will adopt these drugs by 2035.