The use of GLP-1 medications among people without diabetes is increasing, even as new prescriptions for diabetic patients are declining, according to a study released on Tuesday in the Annals of Internal Medicine.
Researchers express concern that this trend could lead to shortages of these important drugs. GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that controls blood sugar and reduces appetite, were initially intended for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA extended approval for the GLP-1 drug Wegovy for weight loss.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are currently facing challenges in producing enough GLP-1 medications, including Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic, to satisfy the increasing demand.
The research team from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center, along with other institutions, examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a doctor between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the necessity for diabetes patients to maintain access to these treatments.”
The study’s data was sourced from the health software company TriNetX, which may not reflect national trends accurately.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight. The explosive growth in sales of these drugs has catapulted Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally, but the rising demand has complicated prescription fulfillment for some patients. In response, both companies have invested significantly to increase production.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 and that around 31.5 million Americans—approximately 9% of the population—will be using these medications by 2035.