A new study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the number of individuals without diabetes who are being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are decreasing. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were first approved for treating type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also sanctioned Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment specifically for weight loss.
Since the approval of Wegovy, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have struggled to meet the escalating demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include popular medications like Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions studied the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. They found that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% to over 70% between 2019 and 2023. Conversely, the share of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study, noted that the data indicates a shift in healthcare providers recognizing the benefits of these drugs for obesity treatment. However, this shift also raises concerns about sufficient access to GLP-1 medications for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not provide a nationally representative sample.
GLP-1 medications have surged in popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, demonstrating the ability to help users lose up to 26% of their body weight. The soaring sales of these drugs have propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become among the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. Nevertheless, the high demand has led to difficulties in fulfilling prescriptions for some patients, prompting both companies to invest billions in expanding their production capabilities.
Morgan Stanley analysts predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030, with an estimated 31.5 million people in the U.S.—about 9% of the population—expected to adopt these medications by 2035.