A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a notable increase in the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications, while new prescriptions for diabetic patients have declined. This trend raises concerns about potential shortages of these important treatments.
GLP-1 drugs, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar and curb appetite, were originally developed for managing type 2 diabetes. However, the FDA approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 treatment, for weight loss in 2021, expanding its use beyond diabetes management.
Both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly, key players in the GLP-1 market, are currently facing challenges in producing enough supply to meet the surging demand for these medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers at Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions analyzed medical records from 45 million Americans who visited healthcare providers between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicated that the proportion of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes decreased from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% in 2023, while the share of new users without diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
Yee Hui Yeo, a co-first author of the study, pointed out that this shift suggests more healthcare providers recognize the efficacy of these medications for obesity treatment. However, it also raises concerns about ensuring continued access for diabetes patients.
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, although it may not fully represent the national population. GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity due to their ability to suppress appetite, with users reportedly losing up to 26% of their body weight.
The rising demand for these medications has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become some of the most valuable pharmaceutical companies globally. However, this high demand has led to difficulties for certain patients in obtaining their prescriptions. To address this, both companies are investing billions to enhance their production capabilities.
Analysts from Morgan Stanley predict that the global market for GLP-1 drugs could reach $105 billion by 2030, and expect that by 2035, around 31.5 million people in the U.S.—approximately 9% of the population—will be using these therapies.