A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals that the proportion of individuals without diabetes being prescribed GLP-1 medications is increasing, while new prescriptions for those with diabetes are declining. The study raises alarms about the potential for shortages in these treatments.
GLP-1 drugs function by imitating a hormone that regulates blood sugar levels and curbs appetite. Originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, the FDA expanded their use in 2021 to include weight loss with the approval of Wegovy.
Currently, both Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly are facing challenges in meeting the escalating demand for GLP-1 medications, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined the medical records of 45 million Americans who visited a healthcare provider between 2011 and 2023. They discovered that the share of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes declined from nearly 90% to over 70% from 2019 to 2023. Conversely, the percentage of new users without type 2 diabetes increased from 10% to 25%.
“This data indicates that healthcare providers are recognizing the advantages of these medications for obesity treatment, marking a substantial public health shift,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, one of the study’s co-authors. “However, it also raises concerns about possible medication shortages and highlights the necessity for patients with diabetes to maintain access to these treatments.”
The study utilized data from TriNetX, a healthcare software company, which may not represent the entire national population.
In recent years, GLP-1 drugs have gained popularity for their appetite-suppressing effects, and some users have lost up to 26% of their body weight with these medications.
The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to become the leading pharmaceutical companies globally. However, the rising demand has made it difficult for some patients to obtain their prescriptions. Both companies have invested billions to increase their production capacities.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for these medications could reach $105 billion by 2030 and estimate that around 31.5 million people in the U.S., approximately 9% of the population, may adopt these treatments by 2035.