A recent study published in the Annals of Internal Medicine reveals a growing trend in the prescription of GLP-1 drugs to individuals without diabetes, while new prescriptions for diabetes patients are declining. The authors of the study express concerns that this shift may lead to potential shortages of these essential treatments.
GLP-1 medications, which mimic a hormone that helps regulate blood sugar levels and suppress appetite, were originally approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. However, in 2021, the FDA also approved Wegovy, a GLP-1 drug, for weight loss purposes.
Following this approval, pharmaceutical companies Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly have faced challenges in meeting the increasing demand for GLP-1 drugs, which include Zepbound, Mounjaro, Wegovy, and Ozempic.
Researchers from Cedars-Sinai Medical Center and other institutions examined medical records from 45 million Americans who had at least one doctor’s visit between 2011 and 2023. Their findings indicate that the percentage of new GLP-1 users with type 2 diabetes dropped from nearly 90% in 2019 to over 70% by 2023. Conversely, the proportion of new users without diabetes rose from 10% to 25%.
“This data suggests that more healthcare providers are recognizing the benefits of these medications for treating obesity, marking a significant shift in public health,” stated Yee Hui Yeo, co-first author of the study. “However, it also raises concerns about potential medication shortages and the need to ensure access for diabetes patients.”
The study utilized data from the healthcare software company TriNetX, which may not reflect a national representation.
In recent years, GLP-1 medications have gained popularity due to their appetite-suppressing effects, with some users reporting weight loss of up to 26% of their body weight. The surge in sales has propelled Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk to the forefront of the pharmaceutical industry, becoming two of the most valuable companies globally. However, the high demand has created difficulties for some patients in obtaining their prescriptions. Both companies have invested heavily to increase the production of these drugs.
Morgan Stanley analysts project that the global market for GLP-1 drugs will reach $105 billion by 2030 and expect that by 2035, approximately 31.5 million people in the U.S.—around 9% of the population—will adopt these medications.